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This IP aims to historically investigate the emergence of critical (inter)dependencies in the European transnational natural gas infrastructure. In particular, the IP aims to explain why certain bilateral natural gas relations could be established, but others not. The IP will study both successful and unsuccessful attempts to create such linkages in Europe, and the role played by the perceived criticalities of transnational gas relations in this process.

IP aims and objectives

In the beginning of 2006 Russia hastily decided to cancel all its deliveries of natural gas to neighbouring Ukraine. During a few dramatic days this decision seemed to cause far­reaching problems, as not only Ukraine, but also Poland, Germany and other countries to the West of Ukraine found their supplies of Russian natural gas reduced and threatened. The acute problem of delivery – a typical critical event in the natural gas infrastructure – was later solved through negotiations and a new Russian-Ukrainian gas contract, but the development gave rise to dismay and perplexity in large parts of Europe. Within the EU, demands for sanctions against Russia were raised. From a German perspective, the incident seemed both to confirm the need for a new direct natural gas pipeline between Germany and Russia through the Baltic Sea, an alternative to the risky and unreliable transnational gas infrastructure through Ukraine and Poland. However, in Central Europe this new direct Russian-German connection is seen as a threat and even awoke unpleasant associations to the Molotov-Ribbentropp pact of 1939.

This recent critical event in the European transnational infrastructure of natural gas seems to illustrate the explosive politics that have come to surround the supply of natural gas in today’s Europe, but also the deep embedding of this infrastructure in European political and economic history. The actual existence of a European natural gas infrastructure – with a complexity that has increased dramatically during the past couple of decades – is intriguing: it provides an example of a truly trans-European infrastructure with large-scale flows not only between countries belonging to specific European subregions (such as the EU or the Nordic countries), but above all across the Iron Curtain as well as between Europe and the Arab world. Especially North and West European countries have developed strong forms of dependencies upon natural gas deliveries from countries, which in other spheres of West European politics were regarded as untrustworthy or even as enemies. How the establishment of such connections has been possible forms the main interest in this IP.

Natural gas is a natural resource that since World War II (particularly from the 1960s) has appeared in shifting ways in Europe’s rapidly expanding energy systems. Natural gas has in many countries to a growing extent been considered suitable for use in electricity production, heat supply, industrial processes, house warming etc. In Sweden and other hydro and nuclear countries, natural gas has often been discussed as a potential alternative to oil and later nuclear power. In countries with a more fossil-based energy infrastructure, natural gas has in recent years been regarded as a suitable way to respond to the Kyoto requirements, since natural gas is characterized by lower CO-2 emissions compared to oil and coal. In yet other countries, such as Russia and Norway, natural gas has become an important export good. In innovation, electrotechnical giants such as Alstom and Siemens have invested billions of euros in developing gas turbines and related technologies, whereby the prospects for manufacturing small-scale gas-fired combined heat and power plants have become an interesting trend in an era characterized by deregulation and rapid market changes. All in all, natural gas today accounts for around 25% of global energy production, and is often regarded as a possible ‘bridge’ to a future era of solar energy as the main energy source. However, the role of natural gas continues to be controversial.

Natural gas differs from other sources of energy in terms of the very complex material networks (in the form of pipelines) that have been necessary for enabling the transportation of gas to customers and users. An alternative to pipeline transportation is Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), which makes possible transportation of gas by sea. But it is still first and foremost through pipelines that most natural gas is actually transported. This in combination with the fact that only very few countries have direct access to large domestic gas resources have created incentives to link different countries’ gas infrastructures with one another, which over time has resulted in the creation of a very wide and complex transnational gas infrastructure in Europe. The integration across national borders has made it possible for countries that possess no or very limited domestic gas resources to replace city gas with natural gas and to use natural gas for a variety of purposes. At the same time, however, the same integration processes have created strong and intricate dependency relations between countries. The development has often been politically and economically problematic and has in many countries been questioned on the basis of economic, environmental and other reasons. The criticality of the transnational gas networks has been demonstrated through a number of critical events, such as in the example given above.

Striking in the emergence of this European infrastructure is the fact that the expansion and interconnection processes have been handled in very different ways by different countries and that the extent of success in creating interconnections have varied strongly between countries and regions. Why, for example, does Sweden almost totally lack connections to the European natural gas system, i.e. why has Sweden connections to Denmark but not to Norway or Russia? How can it be that West Germany in the midst of the Cold War was able to successfully establish a far-reaching integration with the East European gas grid and thereby build itself into a strong dependency relation with the Soviet Union? And why have Spain and Italy in built gas pipelines to North Africa and thus accepted a critical dependency upon politically unstable countries such as Algeria? How can it, in general, be that connections to foreign natural gas systems, despite the many controversial aspects, have succeeded in some countries and failed in others?

The purpose of this IP is, against the above background, to historically investigate the emergence of critical (inter)dependencies in the European transnational natural gas infrastructure. In particular, the IP aims to explain why certain bilateral natural gas relations could be established, while others could not. Why have different countries chosen to integrate themselves with certain neighbours but not with others? How have they perceived and anticipated the emergence of associated transnational interdependencies? Why have different countries chosen to integrate themselves with certain neighbours but not with others? To what extent have they discussed alternatives to those connections that have become reality? How have organizational and institutional solutions been created in those cases where the transnational relations involve one or more transit countries, such as in the Soviet-German case? How has it been possible to create sufficiently strong transnational actor-networks in order to actually create the physical connections? How have actors on both sides of the borders imagined that the connections will be used, and how has it turned out in reality? Which actors and groups have tried to resist the emergence of the links, and why? These are some of the questions that this IP will try to answer.

Methodology

The IP will consist of two phases. In the first phase, a preliminary pre-study will be carried out, focusing on around 10-12 bilateral natural gas connections between countries in Europe. The selection of countries will be symmetric, in the sense that both successful and unsuccessful natural gas link projects will be investigated. To the former belong for example Sweden-Denmark, Netherlands-West Germany, West Germany-Soviet Union, Norway­England and others. To the latter belong Sweden-Soviet Union, Finland-Norway, etc. Building on the results of this preliminary study, four cases of bilateral links will be selected for further in-depth historical study, forming the second phase of the IP.

To guide the in-depth case studies, a number of potentially explanatory factors will be used, with respect to the overall question of why some links could be established and others not. These factors will be identified in the course of the preliminary study. (Examples of such factors may be the strength of positive political relations between countries, or the existence of viable alternatives.) Hence, the approach is partly deductive, in the sense that the IP aims to test the value of the potential hypothesis-like factors. On the other hand, room will be left for unexpected findings in the historical material, which can form a basis for the formulation of earlier unknown factors and their significance in the dynamics of critical European infrastructures

Empirical material will be collected based on two types of sources:

1. Documentary sources. This will in the first phase of the IP be based first and foremost on secondary sources such as journal and newspaper articles. Statistical material will also be used in a descriptive way. The four deeper studies will mainly build on primary sources in the form of both archive material and organization-specific reports, and investigations of various kinds. Researchers in the project will here be able to use their language skills in not only the Nordic languages and English, but also in German, Russian, French and Dutch.

2. Interviews with key actors. Around 20 interviews for each in-depth case will be carried out in the second phase of the IP, focusing on persons who at different stages in history have played key roles in the emergence of the critical infrastructure. Such persons include representatives of various groups, both public and private.

Cross-IP collaboration

To strengthen the empirical part of this IP, we intend to collaborate with our Dutch CRP partner in the IP on electricity. IP Electricity will assist IP Natural Gas in the study of Dutch involvement in building transnational gas interconnections. Conversely, our own IP will assist IP Electricity in the study of Nordel. We will thus pool our research experience and language skills. In a similar way we will also collaborate with IP 3 on the relations between Finland and the Soviet Union.